Vulnerability of European wheat to extreme heat and drought around flowering under future climate
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Identifying the future threats to crop yields from climate change is vital underpin continuous production increases needed for global food security. In present study, vulnerability of European wheat yield heat and drought stresses around flowering under was assessed by estimating 95-percentiles two indices at rain-fed conditions: stress index (HSI95) (DSI95). These represent relative losses due or that could be expected occur once every 20 years on average. The Sirius model run predicted 2050-climate 13 selected sites, representing major wheat-growing regions in Europe. A total 19 models (GCMs) CMIP5 ensemble were used construct local-scale scenarios 2050 (RCP8.5) downscaling GCMs projections with LARS-WG weather generator. mean DSI95 extreme baseline (1981–2010) large over Europe (DSI95 ? 0.28), wide site variation 0.0–0.51). reduction 12% 2050-climate; however, would remain a constraint 0–0.57). contrast, HSI95 very small (HSI95 0.0–0.11), but increase 79% 0.0–0.23) 2050-climate, categorising as an emergent threat production. development varieties are tolerant flowering, required, if not result potential
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Environmental Research Letters
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1748-9326']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf3